Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Strome wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 53.4% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 85.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 59.6%
Neutral zone
Strome 60.7%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Strome
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Strome
O'Reilly
Last 9: Strome 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
3
1
Strome
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
5
Strome
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (968)
56.2% (983)
-3.6%
Power Play
56.9% (311)
55.5% (254)
+1.4%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
52.0% (102)
+10.5%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Strome is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Strome shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Strome
O'Reilly
Home
53.4% (653)
56.2% (697)
Away
53.9% (634)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Strome
O'Reilly
P1
49.3%
54.5%
P2
54.6%
55.5%
P3
56.7%
57.1%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
44.0%▼
55.0%
53.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |