Scouting Report
Tommy Novak holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Luostarinen wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 43.4% vs Novak 45.6% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Luostarinen 53.8%
Defensive zone
Luostarinen 56.2%
Neutral zone
Luostarinen 56.4%
Result
Eetu Luostarinen favored at 56.3%
56.3%
43.7%
Luostarinen
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Luostarinen
Novak
Last 5: Luostarinen 1-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Luostarinen
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Luostarinen
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (365)
43.8% (384)
-2.4%
Power Play
46.7% (15)
58.8% (17)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (38)
100.0% (1)
-55.3%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +55.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Luostarinen is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Luostarinen shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Novak
Home
41.5% (207)
46.5% (202)
Away
42.2% (211)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Luostarinen
Novak
P1
38.2%
49.2%
P2
44.9%
44.2%
P3
42.9%
40.0%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
44.9%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
44.0%▼
47.5%
41.9%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2023 | 2 | 06:49 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:31 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 2 | 16:23 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 17:19 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |