Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lindholm wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 52.7% vs Paul 50.4% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 61.8%
Defensive zone
Paul 71.6%
Neutral zone
Paul 62.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Lindholm
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Lindholm
Paul
Last 8: Lindholm 3-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Lindholm
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Lindholm
Paul
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
1
0
Lindholm
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (1,156)
53.0% (644)
-0.6%
Power Play
59.6% (198)
37.5% (24)
+22.1%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (238)
42.9% (177)
+6.7%
On power play, Lindholm has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Lindholm is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,221).
Lindholm shoots right. Paul is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Paul
Home
52.3% (771)
52.5% (516)
Away
53.5% (821)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Lindholm
Paul
P1
50.7%
47.6%
P2
55.3%
48.4%
P3
54.0%
54.5%
OT
29.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
58.0%▬
58.5%
52.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 15:40 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 08:06 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 17:53 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |