Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Hughes 36.6% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 84.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 53.1%
Neutral zone
Hughes 71.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Rodrigues
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Rodrigues
Hughes
Last 10: Rodrigues 5-5 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
3
7
Rodrigues
Hughes
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
4
2
Rodrigues
Hughes
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
4
Rodrigues
Hughes
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,883)
36.0% (2,887)
+10.2%
Power Play
45.0% (298)
38.8% (224)
+6.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (219)
31.0% (42)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,422).
Rodrigues shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Hughes
Home
47.1% (1,820)
36.8% (1,670)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
35.4% (1,483)
By Period
Rodrigues
Hughes
P1
46.9%
36.9%
P2
46.1%
33.6%
P3
44.6%
38.1%
OT
48.5%
37.5%
Final 5 min
48.1%
34.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.9%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:58 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:03 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 00:51 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:44 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 07:41 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |