Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 52.3%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 57.0%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 54.9%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 54.0%
54.0%
46.0%
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Last 9: Rodrigues 4-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
55.4% (826)
-7.5%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
57.9% (221)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
50.4% (129)
-13.1%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rodrigues is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (574).
Rodrigues shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Home
48.3% (429)
55.8% (579)
Away
45.4% (346)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
P1
48.3%
57.7%
P2
46.9%
54.8%
P3
45.6%
54.3%
OT
44.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.6%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 17:58 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 07:51 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 3 | 00:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 24, 2025 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |