Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 53.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 49.6% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 84.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 78.9%
21.1%
78.9%
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (180)
56.1% (690)
-1.7%
Power Play
32.0% (25)
64.6% (96)
-32.6%
Penalty Kill
36.1% (36)
45.9% (109)
-9.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +32.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rodrigues is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (165).
Rodrigues shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Home
47.9% (119)
58.3% (408)
Away
50.8% (122)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
57.7%
P2
51.9%
54.8%
P3
43.2%
55.2%
OT
33.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
56.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 05:39 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 3 | 00:52 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 14, 2022 | 1 | 18:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |