Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.9% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-9.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 74.6%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 54.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 56.8%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Last 10: Rodrigues 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
4
2
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (318)
56.6% (1,064)
-9.4%
Power Play
52.4% (42)
60.4% (260)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (26)
54.0% (261)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Rodrigues shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
Home
49.8% (215)
54.9% (801)
Away
44.4% (171)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Rodrigues
O'Reilly
P1
44.2%
58.0%
P2
53.5%
56.7%
P3
44.6%
55.4%
OT
40.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
51.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
47.4%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 08:48 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 2 | 12:48 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 1 | 19:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 1 | 15:42 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 5, 2022 | 1 | 09:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |