Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 45.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.9% vs Stamkos 52.8% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 74.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 71.3%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 73.3%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Rodrigues
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rodrigues
Stamkos
Last 5: Rodrigues 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Rodrigues
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Rodrigues
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.6% (560)
52.9% (735)
-6.3%
Power Play
42.4% (59)
53.4% (73)
-11.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (36)
53.8% (145)
-3.8%
On power play, Stamkos has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Rodrigues is 45.0% vs right-shot opponents (189).
Rodrigues shoots right. Stamkos is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (267).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Stamkos
Home
48.5% (379)
54.1% (481)
Away
43.5% (276)
52.1% (472)
By Period
Rodrigues
Stamkos
P1
48.8%
50.2%
P2
43.8%
53.4%
P3
45.6%
55.8%
OT
77.8%
36.4%
Final 5 min
40.8%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
46.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 17:14 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 3 | 02:47 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 1 | 08:01 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |