Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Stamkos 49.9% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 72.2%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 70.4%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 59.7%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 50.9%
49.1%
50.9%
Rodrigues
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Rodrigues
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Rodrigues
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (250)
49.3% (670)
-3.7%
Power Play
40.0% (30)
53.7% (121)
-13.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
33.3% (3)
+16.7%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Rodrigues is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (59).
Rodrigues shoots right. Stamkos is 42.4% vs right-shot opponents (184).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Stamkos
Home
46.5% (142)
54.0% (400)
Away
43.6% (140)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Rodrigues
Stamkos
P1
42.9%
48.6%
P2
50.0%
54.5%
P3
42.4%
45.4%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
45.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:46 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 3 | 08:11 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |