Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.3% vs Thompson 45.3% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 52.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 72.2%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 62.4%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 62.4%
62.4%
37.6%
Rodrigues
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Thompson
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
0
Rodrigues
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Thompson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Thompson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (637)
44.9% (642)
+3.0%
Power Play
47.9% (71)
47.9% (94)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
37.3% (67)
33.3% (33)
+4.0%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Rodrigues is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (201).
Rodrigues shoots right. Thompson is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Thompson
Home
48.3% (429)
46.0% (391)
Away
45.4% (346)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Rodrigues
Thompson
P1
48.3%
48.1%
P2
46.9%
44.9%
P3
45.6%
41.2%
OT
44.4%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.6%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
42.0%▼
50.0%
47.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:35 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 02:49 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:37 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 09:32 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 12, 2026 | 1 | 01:39 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |