Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Malkin wins 43.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 15-14 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 71.0%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 68.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 50.4%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Malkin
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
15
(29 meetings)
14
15
Malkin
Pavelski
Last 10: Malkin 6-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
8
5
Malkin
Pavelski
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
6
Malkin
Pavelski
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
4
Malkin
Pavelski
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
53.6% (8,791)
-8.0%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
58.2% (2,122)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
50.9% (1,138)
-18.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Malkin is 43.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,557).
Malkin shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Malkin
Pavelski
Home
47.6% (5,395)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Malkin
Pavelski
P1
45.9%
53.5%
P2
46.2%
55.2%
P3
45.2%
53.9%
OT
49.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
46.0%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:48 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 21, 2019 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2019 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 30, 2018 | 3 | 13:58 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 13:31 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 14:24 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 1 | 18:55 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 10:17 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 00:06 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 3 | 15:24 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 1 | 12:15 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2015 | 1 | 01:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |