Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Malkin wins 46.5% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 49.4% vs Pavelski 53.0% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 69.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 66.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Malkin
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Malkin
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Pavelski
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (811)
52.3% (560)
-3.3%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
57.5% (113)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
62.5% (16)
-12.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Malkin is 46.5% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Malkin shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Home / Away
Malkin
Pavelski
Home
52.3% (438)
54.2% (360)
Away
46.2% (418)
52.6% (329)
By Period
Malkin
Pavelski
P1
51.3%
54.5%
P2
50.8%
56.7%
P3
45.0%
50.8%
OT
0.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
51.8%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
49.3%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 07:50 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 12, 2022 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |