Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 48.7% vs Pavelski 50.9% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 61.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 76.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 68.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Malkin
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Malkin
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
0
Malkin
Pavelski
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
0
1
Malkin
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (776)
51.5% (594)
-3.6%
Power Play
66.7% (24)
51.7% (87)
+15.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
28.6% (14)
+71.4%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +71.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Malkin is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (260).
Malkin shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Home / Away
Malkin
Pavelski
Home
49.6% (405)
53.1% (339)
Away
47.5% (396)
49.2% (356)
By Period
Malkin
Pavelski
P1
49.6%
53.8%
P2
47.2%
47.8%
P3
48.5%
50.2%
OT
100.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
48.3%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
48.6%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 22, 2024 | 1 | 06:48 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |