Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 47.7% vs Bailey 44.6% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 64.2%
Defensive zone
Bailey 83.9%
Neutral zone
Bailey 63.9%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 63.4%
36.6%
63.4%
Malkin
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Malkin
Bailey
Last 9: Malkin 2-7 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
2
Malkin
Bailey
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
4
Malkin
Bailey
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Bailey
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
46.4% (922)
44.2% (579)
+2.2%
Power Play
52.7% (262)
52.5% (40)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
39.8% (108)
-17.6%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Malkin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (884).
Malkin shoots left. Bailey is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Malkin
Bailey
Home
52.4% (601)
45.9% (375)
Away
42.7% (609)
41.8% (361)
By Period
Malkin
Bailey
P1
48.8%
47.3%
P2
50.6%
40.4%
P3
41.6%
43.3%
OT
65.2%
63.6%
Final 5 min
46.4%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
47.5%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2012 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 27, 2012 | 1 | 14:06 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 3 | 09:57 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 2 | 17:14 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Nov 21, 2011 | 1 | 08:38 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 27, 2011 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 25, 2011 | 2 | 03:59 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 25, 2011 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |