Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bailey on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 43.5% vs Bailey 48.2% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 71.0%
Defensive zone
Malkin 68.6%
Neutral zone
Malkin 69.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Malkin
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Malkin
Bailey
Last 5: Malkin 1-4 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
2
Malkin
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
1
2
Malkin
Bailey
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
43.1% (733)
49.0% (51)
-5.9%
Power Play
31.3% (16)
30.0% (10)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
40.0% (5)
-23.3%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Malkin is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (489).
Malkin shoots left. Bailey is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (38).
Home / Away
Malkin
Bailey
Home
42.6% (338)
40.6% (32)
Away
42.7% (417)
50.0% (34)
By Period
Malkin
Bailey
P1
40.9%
50.0%
P2
45.3%
38.1%
P3
42.0%
52.2%
OT
40.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
46.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
42.6%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2015 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 2 | 10:54 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 2 | 10:44 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 10, 2015 | 1 | 16:14 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |