Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Carlsson 41.2% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 89.4%
Defensive zone
Malkin 71.1%
Neutral zone
Malkin 78.9%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 81.5%
81.5%
18.5%
Malkin
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Malkin
Carlsson
Last 9: Malkin 7-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
0
Malkin
Carlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
2
Malkin
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
41.0% (1,844)
+4.6%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
42.9% (154)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
35.0% (120)
-2.8%
On power play, Malkin has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Carlsson is 40.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,479).
Home / Away
Malkin
Carlsson
Home
47.6% (5,395)
42.2% (1,044)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
39.4% (1,074)
By Period
Malkin
Carlsson
P1
45.9%
43.3%
P2
46.2%
36.5%
P3
45.2%
43.2%
OT
49.0%
40.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:39 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:32 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |