Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Carlsson 41.4% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 90.5%
Defensive zone
Malkin 71.0%
Neutral zone
Malkin 79.8%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 82.4%
82.4%
17.6%
Malkin
Carlsson
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Malkin
Carlsson
Last 9: Malkin 7-2 Carlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
0
Malkin
Carlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Carlsson
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
2
Malkin
Carlsson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Carlsson
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,073)
41.1% (1,716)
+4.5%
Power Play
50.9% (643)
42.8% (152)
+8.1%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
35.3% (116)
-3.1%
On power play, Malkin has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carlsson shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,254).
Malkin shoots left. Carlsson is 40.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,391).
Home / Away
Malkin
Carlsson
Home
47.6% (5,385)
42.9% (956)
Away
44.0% (5,413)
39.1% (1,028)
By Period
Malkin
Carlsson
P1
45.9%
44.2%
P2
46.2%
35.8%
P3
45.2%
43.5%
OT
49.0%
41.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
39.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
48.0%▬
47.0%
45.8%
Carlsson
40.0%▼
43.5%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 08:18 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:39 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 05:32 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 04:27 | Neutral | Leo Carlsson |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:44 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 30, 2023 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |