Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Malkin wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Backlund 49.6% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 78.0%
Defensive zone
Malkin 64.6%
Neutral zone
Malkin 69.8%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 72.5%
72.5%
27.5%
Malkin
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Malkin
Backlund
Last 9: Malkin 2-7 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
2
Malkin
Backlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
5
Malkin
Backlund
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (807)
49.2% (884)
-3.0%
Power Play
30.4% (23)
44.3% (61)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
57.0% (86)
-23.7%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +23.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Malkin is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (611).
Malkin shoots left. Backlund is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (654).
Home / Away
Malkin
Backlund
Home
45.1% (450)
49.3% (531)
Away
46.4% (384)
49.8% (500)
By Period
Malkin
Backlund
P1
48.2%
47.1%
P2
43.5%
53.7%
P3
46.0%
47.8%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
43.5%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.7%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 13:52 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 10:48 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 07:06 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 16, 2019 | 1 | 01:17 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 13:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 3 | 03:23 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 15:22 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 08:33 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 25, 2018 | 1 | 07:19 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |