Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.4% vs Cates 45.1% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 83.4%
Defensive zone
Cates 67.6%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.3%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 66.1%
66.1%
33.9%
Malkin
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Malkin
Cates
Last 6: Malkin 5-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
0
Malkin
Cates
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
1
Malkin
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (602)
46.7% (912)
-1.2%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
33.9% (56)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
35.0% (137)
+65.0%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +65.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Malkin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (431).
Malkin shoots left. Cates is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (767).
Home / Away
Malkin
Cates
Home
47.5% (326)
46.1% (521)
Away
44.0% (307)
43.3% (584)
By Period
Malkin
Cates
P1
49.3%
48.0%
P2
44.7%
42.3%
P3
42.3%
44.3%
OT
66.7%
31.3%
Final 5 min
49.5%
42.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |