Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Cates 43.2% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Malkin leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Malkin 89.6%
Defensive zone
Cates 51.3%
Neutral zone
Malkin 62.7%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 75.0%
75.0%
25.0%
Malkin
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
2
(12 meetings)
10
2
Malkin
Cates
Last 10: Malkin 8-2 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
6
0
Malkin
Cates
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
3
2
Malkin
Cates
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
44.1% (2,742)
+1.5%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
43.0% (242)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
34.9% (373)
-2.7%
On power play, Malkin has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,284).
Home / Away
Malkin
Cates
Home
47.6% (5,395)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Malkin
Cates
P1
45.9%
44.5%
P2
46.2%
43.5%
P3
45.2%
41.2%
OT
49.0%
29.4%
Final 5 min
46.0%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 18:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 11:38 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 04:30 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:56 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:06 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:34 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Apr 2, 2023 | 1 | 11:35 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 11:18 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 06:25 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |