Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.4% vs Kelly 43.9% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 82.0%
Defensive zone
Kelly 85.2%
Neutral zone
Kelly 51.8%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Malkin
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Malkin
Kelly
Last 5: Malkin 2-3 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Malkin
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Malkin
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (602)
44.8% (556)
+0.7%
Power Play
50.0% (30)
0.0% (2)
+50.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
36.8% (144)
+63.2%
On penalty kill, Malkin has a +63.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Malkin is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (431).
Malkin shoots left. Kelly is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (481).
Home / Away
Malkin
Kelly
Home
47.5% (326)
44.8% (368)
Away
44.0% (307)
41.0% (334)
By Period
Malkin
Kelly
P1
49.3%
46.7%
P2
44.7%
48.0%
P3
42.3%
34.8%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.5%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:51 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |