Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Kelly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Kelly 41.8% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 82.2%
Defensive zone
Kelly 83.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 57.5%
Result
Parker Kelly favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Malkin
Kelly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Malkin
Kelly
Last 5: Malkin 2-3 Kelly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Kelly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
0
1
Malkin
Kelly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kelly
1
2
Malkin
Kelly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Kelly
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
41.9% (756)
+3.7%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
0.0% (3)
+50.1%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
37.2% (172)
-5.0%
On power play, Malkin has a +50.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kelly shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Kelly is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (626).
Home / Away
Malkin
Kelly
Home
47.6% (5,395)
42.5% (475)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
39.3% (456)
By Period
Malkin
Kelly
P1
45.9%
42.4%
P2
46.2%
44.7%
P3
45.2%
35.7%
OT
49.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
35.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Kelly
46.0%▲
38.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 03:51 | Neutral | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 19:14 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Parker Kelly |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |