Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 49.4% vs Novak 45.6% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 73.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 50.2%
Neutral zone
Malkin 55.5%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 55.7%
55.7%
44.3%
Malkin
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Malkin
Novak
Last 5: Malkin 3-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Malkin
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (811)
43.8% (384)
+5.2%
Power Play
55.8% (43)
58.8% (17)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
100.0% (1)
-50.0%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +50.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Malkin is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (568).
Malkin shoots left. Novak is 43.9% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Home / Away
Malkin
Novak
Home
52.3% (438)
46.5% (202)
Away
46.2% (418)
42.5% (200)
By Period
Malkin
Novak
P1
51.3%
49.2%
P2
50.8%
44.2%
P3
45.0%
40.0%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.8%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
49.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |