Scouting Report
Evgeni Malkin holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 45.9% vs Novak 43.3% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 53.8%
Defensive zone
Malkin 51.4%
Neutral zone
Malkin 50.4%
Result
Evgeni Malkin favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Malkin
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Malkin
Novak
Last 6: Malkin 3-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
1
0
Malkin
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
Malkin
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (10,081)
42.1% (1,539)
+3.5%
Power Play
50.1% (668)
51.9% (133)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
32.2% (59)
50.0% (2)
-17.8%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Malkin is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,274).
Malkin shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Malkin
Novak
Home
47.6% (5,395)
45.3% (814)
Away
44.0% (5,436)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Malkin
Novak
P1
45.9%
43.9%
P2
46.2%
42.8%
P3
45.2%
41.7%
OT
49.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.0%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
45.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 05:35 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 01:47 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:00 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 2 | 09:41 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |