Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Kuznetsov wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 44.0% vs Hertl 52.3% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuznetsov 87.4%
Defensive zone
Kuznetsov 66.2%
Neutral zone
Kuznetsov 75.1%
Result
Evgeny Kuznetsov favored at 70.5%
70.5%
29.5%
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Last 5: Kuznetsov 1-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Kuznetsov
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Kuznetsov
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.3% (980)
51.6% (1,084)
-8.3%
Power Play
47.0% (115)
61.0% (246)
-14.0%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (71)
44.1% (136)
-3.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +14.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuznetsov is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Home
43.9% (602)
55.2% (696)
Away
43.1% (564)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Hertl
P1
43.2%
55.4%
P2
41.5%
54.8%
P3
45.2%
48.9%
OT
55.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
43.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 16:48 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Jan 26, 2022 | 1 | 04:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 17:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |