Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 45.6% vs Hertl 56.8% (-12.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 51.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 60.0%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Last 8: Kuznetsov 4-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
2
0
Kuznetsov
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kuznetsov
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Kuznetsov
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (613)
57.0% (718)
-12.6%
Power Play
58.8% (68)
64.9% (188)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (66)
44.2% (77)
-7.8%
On even strength, Hertl has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuznetsov is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Home
48.6% (370)
59.2% (463)
Away
41.4% (377)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Hertl
P1
44.3%
56.3%
P2
49.6%
55.4%
P3
41.4%
60.5%
OT
42.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
45.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 12:56 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |