Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuznetsov on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuznetsov 47.7% vs Hertl 54.5% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 65.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 58.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Last 7: Kuznetsov 4-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
1
0
Kuznetsov
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuznetsov
2
1
Kuznetsov
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Kuznetsov
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (927)
54.1% (1,117)
-6.4%
Power Play
53.5% (71)
59.8% (296)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
39.4% (71)
34.4% (32)
+5.0%
On even strength, Hertl has a +6.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Kuznetsov is 48.7% vs left-shot opponents (729).
Kuznetsov shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Kuznetsov
Hertl
Home
45.9% (534)
54.3% (709)
Away
49.2% (535)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Kuznetsov
Hertl
P1
44.8%
51.6%
P2
52.1%
53.6%
P3
44.5%
58.6%
OT
75.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
45.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuznetsov
46.0%▲
44.0%
47.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 19:20 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 05:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Evgeny Kuznetsov |