Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nazar wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Tavares 57.2% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 80.6%
Defensive zone
Nazar 75.3%
Neutral zone
Nazar 84.0%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
Nazar
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nazar
Tavares
Last 9: Nazar 2-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
4
Nazar
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Nazar
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Nazar
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
58.0% (914)
-11.1%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
57.0% (235)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
57.9% (19)
-32.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +32.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nazar shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Home / Away
Nazar
Tavares
Home
45.0% (329)
57.8% (614)
Away
47.2% (375)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Nazar
Tavares
P1
47.2%
58.0%
P2
43.1%
56.9%
P3
46.8%
58.4%
OT
75.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
42.9%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |