Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Tavares 54.4% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 74.0%
Defensive zone
Nazar 81.2%
Neutral zone
Nazar 76.1%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 76.6%
76.6%
23.4%
Nazar
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nazar
Tavares
Last 9: Nazar 2-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
4
Nazar
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Nazar
Tavares
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Nazar
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
54.0% (16,108)
-7.9%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
56.5% (4,283)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
50.6% (620)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Nazar
Tavares
Home
44.2% (536)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
46.4% (571)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Nazar
Tavares
P1
47.3%
55.0%
P2
42.0%
54.1%
P3
46.0%
54.1%
OT
66.7%
55.9%
Final 5 min
44.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:23 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:44 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 13:07 | Neutral | John Tavares |