Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Nazar wins 42.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Dowd 49.9% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 95.0%
Defensive zone
Nazar 68.4%
Neutral zone
Nazar 72.8%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Nazar
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Nazar
Dowd
Last 5: Nazar 0-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Nazar
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Nazar
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Nazar
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (314)
52.2% (835)
-7.0%
Power Play
39.5% (38)
60.0% (10)
-20.5%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
44.0% (350)
+0.8%
On power play, Dowd has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nazar is 42.3% vs right-shot opponents (97).
Nazar shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Nazar
Dowd
Home
43.4% (196)
51.5% (619)
Away
45.9% (185)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Nazar
Dowd
P1
47.3%
51.7%
P2
40.3%
51.6%
P3
46.7%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
44.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |