Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Dowd 49.1% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 73.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 90.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 65.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 78.0%
22.0%
78.0%
Nazar
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nazar
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
0
Nazar
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
51.7% (644)
-4.8%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
0.0% (2)
+49.2%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
41.6% (221)
-16.0%
On power play, Nazar has a +49.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nazar is 52.0% vs right-shot opponents (200).
Nazar shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Home / Away
Nazar
Dowd
Home
45.0% (329)
48.6% (451)
Away
47.2% (375)
49.5% (416)
By Period
Nazar
Dowd
P1
47.2%
49.1%
P2
43.1%
47.3%
P3
46.8%
51.4%
OT
75.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
52.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |