Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 94.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 73.5%
Neutral zone
Nazar 65.4%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Nazar
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Nazar
Dowd
Last 9: Nazar 3-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Nazar
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nazar
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Nazar
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
52.4% (6,009)
-6.3%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
56.1% (164)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
44.1% (1,635)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nazar is 48.7% vs right-shot opponents (300).
Nazar shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Home / Away
Nazar
Dowd
Home
44.2% (536)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
46.4% (571)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Nazar
Dowd
P1
47.3%
51.7%
P2
42.0%
50.4%
P3
46.0%
50.3%
OT
66.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
44.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |