Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.7% vs Sturm 54.0% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 66.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.9%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Nazar
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nazar
Sturm
Last 9: Nazar 5-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (626)
55.2% (277)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
30.8% (52)
54.7% (95)
-23.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +23.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nazar is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (614).
Nazar shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Nazar
Sturm
Home
45.9% (381)
54.3% (175)
Away
48.6% (465)
55.8% (197)
By Period
Nazar
Sturm
P1
49.3%
58.8%
P2
43.6%
53.5%
P3
48.2%
53.1%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.6%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.4%
Sturm
54.0%▼
57.0%
55.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 02:17 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:03 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |