Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Sturm 56.1% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 50.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 72.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 70.7%
29.3%
70.7%
Nazar
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nazar
Sturm
Last 9: Nazar 5-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
57.1% (2,719)
-11.0%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
61.3% (62)
-14.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
51.0% (498)
-17.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Nazar
Sturm
Home
44.2% (536)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
46.4% (571)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Nazar
Sturm
P1
47.3%
56.5%
P2
42.0%
54.9%
P3
46.0%
57.4%
OT
66.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
44.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 02:17 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:03 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |