Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Sturm 53.6% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 62.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 88.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Nazar
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nazar
Sturm
Last 9: Nazar 5-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
2
Nazar
Sturm
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
54.6% (271)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
54.4% (90)
-28.8%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +28.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nazar shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
Nazar
Sturm
Home
45.0% (329)
53.0% (168)
Away
47.2% (375)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Nazar
Sturm
P1
47.2%
58.2%
P2
43.1%
53.2%
P3
46.8%
52.3%
OT
75.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 14:15 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:14 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 07:01 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 02:17 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 02:03 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |