Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 63.7%
Defensive zone
Nazar 74.3%
Neutral zone
Nazar 64.9%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Nazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Nazar
Hertl
Last 6: Nazar 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Nazar
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Nazar
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (314)
54.1% (717)
-8.9%
Power Play
39.5% (38)
61.9% (210)
-22.4%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (29)
58.1% (31)
-13.3%
On power play, Hertl has a +22.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nazar is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Nazar shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Nazar
Hertl
Home
43.4% (196)
58.1% (492)
Away
45.9% (185)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Nazar
Hertl
P1
47.3%
57.1%
P2
40.3%
54.0%
P3
46.7%
56.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
44.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |