Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 43.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 50.8%
Defensive zone
Nazar 69.6%
Neutral zone
Nazar 65.2%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Nazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Nazar
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nazar
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Nazar
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (533)
58.1% (823)
-11.2%
Power Play
49.2% (132)
56.2% (265)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
25.6% (39)
62.9% (35)
-37.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +37.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nazar is 43.8% vs left-shot opponents (504).
Nazar shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Nazar
Hertl
Home
45.0% (329)
59.7% (561)
Away
47.2% (375)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Nazar
Hertl
P1
47.2%
51.6%
P2
43.1%
63.8%
P3
46.8%
58.6%
OT
75.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
42.9%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
46.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |