Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Nazar wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 45.7% vs Hertl 54.2% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 84.3%
Defensive zone
Nazar 78.0%
Neutral zone
Nazar 77.2%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Nazar
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Nazar
Hertl
Last 10: Nazar 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Nazar
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
5
Nazar
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Nazar
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (866)
53.8% (8,268)
-7.7%
Power Play
46.5% (172)
59.3% (1,975)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (69)
46.3% (806)
-13.0%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nazar is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Nazar shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Nazar
Hertl
Home
44.2% (536)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
46.4% (571)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Nazar
Hertl
P1
47.3%
53.6%
P2
42.0%
54.1%
P3
46.0%
55.3%
OT
66.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
44.7%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
36.0%▼
48.0%
45.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 16:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |