Scouting Report
Justin Dowling holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Minten wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Dowling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 47.4% vs Dowling 48.7% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowling 64.7%
Defensive zone
Dowling 56.5%
Neutral zone
Dowling 63.8%
Result
Justin Dowling favored at 61.6%
38.4%
61.6%
Minten
Dowling
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Minten
Dowling
Last 6: Minten 4-2 Dowling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Dowling
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
Dowling
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Minten
Dowling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Dowling
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (155)
48.7% (318)
-2.9%
Power Play
50.0% (10)
20.0% (5)
+30.0%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (3)
50.0% (4)
-16.7%
On power play, Minten has a +30.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowling shoots left. Minten is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (121).
Minten shoots left. Dowling is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Minten
Dowling
Home
49.5% (101)
49.0% (145)
Away
40.3% (67)
47.8% (182)
By Period
Minten
Dowling
P1
37.3%
48.1%
P2
44.1%
49.1%
P3
55.2%
47.8%
Final 5 min
43.2%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
45.8%
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 09:31 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:44 | Neutral | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 12:44 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Justin Dowling |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |