Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.8% vs 48.6%). Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.0% vs Foligno 48.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 54.2%
Defensive zone
Minten 58.9%
Neutral zone
Minten 53.0%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 52.1%
52.1%
47.9%
Minten
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Minten
Foligno
Last 5: Minten 2-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
3
Minten
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Minten
Foligno
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (793)
48.3% (2,810)
+0.5%
Power Play
45.8% (59)
52.3% (730)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
34.0% (47)
44.0% (455)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Minten is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Minten shoots left. Foligno is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,496).
Home / Away
Minten
Foligno
Home
51.2% (449)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
44.4% (450)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
Minten
Foligno
P1
44.0%
47.6%
P2
46.4%
50.4%
P3
52.1%
48.3%
OT
83.3%
29.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
47.8%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:37 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 3 | 06:51 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |