Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.5% vs Novak 43.4% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 80.0%
Defensive zone
Novak 60.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 65.6%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 64.8%
35.2%
64.8%
Minten
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Minten
Novak
Last 8: Minten 3-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Minten
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
3
1
Minten
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Minten
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (603)
41.4% (379)
+8.2%
Power Play
45.8% (48)
46.9% (32)
-1.1%
On even strength, Minten has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Minten is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Minten shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Minten
Novak
Home
51.6% (322)
42.6% (195)
Away
45.4% (372)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Minten
Novak
P1
44.9%
42.4%
P2
46.6%
39.2%
P3
52.1%
44.7%
OT
83.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
48.3%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:48 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |