Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.0% vs Novak 43.3% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 80.4%
Defensive zone
Minten 51.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 63.0%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Minten
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Minten
Novak
Last 8: Minten 3-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Minten
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
3
1
Minten
Novak
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Minten
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (793)
42.1% (1,539)
+6.7%
Power Play
45.8% (59)
51.9% (133)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
34.0% (47)
50.0% (2)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Minten is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (594).
Minten shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Minten
Novak
Home
51.2% (449)
45.3% (814)
Away
44.4% (450)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Minten
Novak
P1
44.0%
43.9%
P2
46.4%
42.8%
P3
52.1%
41.7%
OT
83.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.7%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
46.0%▼
49.5%
47.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:48 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 3 | 12:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:51 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 2 | 13:06 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |