Frederick Gaudreau vs Michael McCarron
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs McCarron 52.5% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McCarron 54.2%
Defensive zone
McCarron 65.3%
Neutral zone
McCarron 71.8%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Gaudreau
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Gaudreau
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
McCarron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (389)
53.1% (672)
-8.1%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
18.2% (11)
+13.6%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (125)
53.7% (205)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Gaudreau is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Gaudreau shoots right. McCarron is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (265).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
McCarron
Home
42.6% (277)
52.8% (477)
Away
42.9% (259)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Gaudreau
McCarron
P1
43.8%
56.5%
P2
44.8%
53.2%
P3
39.2%
49.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 04:20 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |