Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 48.4% vs Steel 52.8% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gaudreau 67.0%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 65.4%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 64.8%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Gaudreau
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Gaudreau
Steel
Last 9: Gaudreau 3-6 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
2
Gaudreau
Steel
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
3
Gaudreau
Steel
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudreau
Steel
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (858)
56.9% (320)
-7.7%
Power Play
39.0% (41)
71.4% (7)
-32.4%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (198)
37.0% (73)
+9.0%
On power play, Steel has a +32.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Gaudreau is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (819).
Gaudreau shoots right. Steel is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Steel
Home
47.1% (546)
55.9% (202)
Away
49.4% (551)
51.0% (198)
By Period
Gaudreau
Steel
P1
46.8%
55.5%
P2
46.8%
55.1%
P3
51.1%
50.3%
Final 5 min
50.4%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.2%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:22 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 19:19 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 05:25 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 10:28 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 1 | 05:53 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 1 | 09:28 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 06:22 | Defensive | Sam Steel |