Scouting Report
Isac Lundeström holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lundeström wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundeström 46.5% vs Novak 43.3% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 86.8%
Defensive zone
Lundeström 66.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 63.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Lundeström
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Lundeström
Novak
Last 10: Lundeström 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
3
Lundeström
Novak
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lundeström
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
2
3
Lundeström
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundeström
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (2,987)
42.1% (1,539)
+5.2%
Power Play
51.4% (74)
51.9% (133)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
41.2% (582)
50.0% (2)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Lundeström is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,460).
Lundeström shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Lundeström
Novak
Home
47.0% (1,826)
45.3% (814)
Away
45.8% (1,817)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Lundeström
Novak
P1
49.2%
43.9%
P2
45.6%
42.8%
P3
44.5%
41.7%
OT
45.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.4%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundeström
52.0%▬
52.0%
46.4%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:32 | Neutral | Isac Lundeström |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:54 | Offensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 03:21 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 18:19 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 3 | 10:42 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:45 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 01:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:44 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 17:37 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 3 | 19:34 | Neutral | Isac Lundeström |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |