Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Barbashev wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.2% vs Bailey 45.5% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 78.0%
Defensive zone
Bailey 71.9%
Neutral zone
Bailey 74.9%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Barbashev
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Barbashev
Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
2
0
Barbashev
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barbashev
1
0
Barbashev
Bailey
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (1,738)
45.8% (1,991)
-3.8%
Power Play
46.1% (89)
48.1% (295)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (139)
39.9% (281)
-3.2%
On even strength, Bailey has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Barbashev is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,173).
Barbashev shoots left. Bailey is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,590).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Bailey
Home
42.4% (932)
46.6% (1,353)
Away
41.3% (1,034)
44.0% (1,232)
By Period
Barbashev
Bailey
P1
40.7%
46.5%
P2
42.3%
44.8%
P3
42.3%
44.4%
OT
60.0%
51.1%
Final 5 min
39.2%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 3 | 06:09 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Oct 9, 2017 | 3 | 01:34 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |