Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Barbashev on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Barbashev wins 40.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.2% vs Roy 48.4% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
Barbashev leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 64.6%
Defensive zone
Roy 88.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 81.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 81.9%
18.1%
81.9%
Barbashev
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
5
(13 meetings)
8
5
Barbashev
Roy
Last 10: Barbashev 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barbashev
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
4
2
Barbashev
Roy
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barbashev
3
2
Barbashev
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
42.0% (1,738)
48.7% (3,719)
-6.7%
Power Play
46.1% (89)
49.5% (283)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (139)
45.5% (477)
-8.8%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Barbashev is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (793).
Barbashev shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Roy
Home
42.4% (932)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
41.3% (1,034)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Barbashev
Roy
P1
40.7%
50.8%
P2
42.3%
46.3%
P3
42.3%
48.1%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.2%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:22 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| May 8, 2021 | 1 | 06:50 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 07:10 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 06:52 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| May 7, 2021 | 2 | 16:18 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 3 | 12:50 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 2 | 16:17 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 4, 2020 | 1 | 12:41 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |