Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Barbashev on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Barbashev wins 42.1% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 42.3% vs Roy 48.9% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 82.7%
Defensive zone
Roy 92.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 86.2%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 91.6%
8.4%
91.6%
Barbashev
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Barbashev
Roy
Last 5: Barbashev 5-0 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
4
0
Barbashev
Roy
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barbashev
1
0
Barbashev
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (272)
49.5% (746)
-11.6%
Power Play
58.6% (29)
50.7% (75)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (27)
42.7% (110)
-2.0%
On even strength, Roy has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Barbashev is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (126).
Barbashev shoots left. Roy is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (689).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Roy
Home
45.3% (137)
47.7% (491)
Away
36.1% (191)
50.0% (440)
By Period
Barbashev
Roy
P1
41.8%
51.1%
P2
43.1%
44.6%
P3
31.9%
50.9%
OT
75.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
37.1%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
39.9%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2021 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 12:22 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 1 | 11:57 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 22, 2021 | 1 | 08:15 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |