Scouting Report
Brady Tkachuk holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Compher on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 14 meetings). Tkachuk wins 44.6% vs right-shot opponents — Compher shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tkachuk 50.1% vs Compher 47.8% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Compher leads 18-11 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Tkachuk 85.8%
Defensive zone
Compher 71.7%
Neutral zone
Compher 57.2%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Tkachuk
Compher
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
18
(29 meetings)
11
18
Tkachuk
Compher
Last 10: Tkachuk 3-7 Compher
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tkachuk
8
1
Tkachuk
Compher
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
1
13
Tkachuk
Compher
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
2
4
Tkachuk
Compher
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tkachuk
Compher
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (1,560)
48.7% (5,716)
+0.3%
Power Play
51.4% (1,291)
52.6% (682)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
45.0% (20)
41.9% (1,421)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Tkachuk has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Compher shoots right. Tkachuk is 44.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,218).
Tkachuk shoots left. Compher is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (5,626).
Home / Away
Tkachuk
Compher
Home
50.7% (1,428)
49.1% (3,894)
Away
49.5% (1,443)
46.6% (3,925)
By Period
Tkachuk
Compher
P1
49.4%
49.1%
P2
51.3%
47.3%
P3
49.3%
47.4%
OT
57.1%
40.2%
Final 5 min
46.9%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tkachuk
56.0%▼
60.5%
50.1%
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 06:54 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 07:18 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 3 | 07:12 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 06:05 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 3 | 05:00 | Neutral | Brady Tkachuk |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 19:20 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:19 | Defensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:38 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 03:24 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 14:56 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Nov 16, 2023 | OT | 03:04 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:58 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 15:30 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 12:45 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3 | 04:06 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 2 | 01:57 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:03 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:59 | Offensive | Brady Tkachuk |