Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Compher wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 45.2% vs Dowd 48.3% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Compher 90.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 57.2%
Neutral zone
Compher 58.5%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 65.4%
65.4%
34.6%
Compher
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Compher
Dowd
Last 7: Compher 2-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Compher
2
1
Compher
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Compher
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Compher
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (782)
49.2% (778)
-3.7%
Power Play
44.2% (77)
58.3% (12)
-14.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (180)
44.0% (234)
-2.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Compher is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Compher shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Compher
Dowd
Home
44.0% (484)
46.3% (492)
Away
45.4% (555)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Compher
Dowd
P1
46.2%
49.1%
P2
44.8%
48.2%
P3
44.2%
46.9%
OT
25.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
37.8%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
44.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 3 | 00:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 19:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:34 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2024 | 1 | 08:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 26, 2024 | OT | 01:01 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |