Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). McDavid wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Miller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Miller 57.6% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 82.5%
Defensive zone
McDavid 86.7%
Neutral zone
McDavid 81.3%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 82.9%
82.9%
17.1%
McDavid
Miller
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
10
(14 meetings)
4
10
McDavid
Miller
Last 10: McDavid 2-8 Miller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
3
McDavid
Miller
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
2
McDavid
Miller
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
1
5
McDavid
Miller
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Miller
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
58.2% (823)
-10.5%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
58.2% (165)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
58.9% (90)
-36.7%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +36.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Miller shoots left. McDavid is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (494).
McDavid shoots left. Miller is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (754).
Home / Away
McDavid
Miller
Home
47.3% (387)
59.1% (558)
Away
48.1% (389)
57.3% (520)
By Period
McDavid
Miller
P1
47.6%
60.7%
P2
50.0%
57.5%
P3
45.0%
56.1%
Final 5 min
46.8%
60.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:07 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 19:49 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 15:49 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:30 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:24 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 08:18 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 04:26 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |